【Daily Political and Economic Hot Topics】Supply Chain in the Iran War: Who Will Be the First to Collapse
In the supply chain, who will be the first to break? The first phase is the product price premium that has occurred, with a general increase in energy, chemicals, and fertilizer prices; the second phase may involve some production lines shutting down, Asian refineries and chemical plants reducing output, and inventory consumption; the third phase, if supply disruption continues for 1 to 3 months, will put pressure on the entire industry, such as damage to spring plowing, tightening of semiconductor raw materials, and a decline in chemical manufacturing output; the fourth phase, if supply disruption continues for 3 to 6 months, entails systemic risks, including a global food crisis, a decline in advanced chip production capacity, and permanent loss of oil and gas production capacity.