March is coming to an end, let's summarize the bumps of this month:
Viewpoint 1: Macroeconomic headwinds are indiscriminate strikes.
The main line of the market is rising oil prices, tariffs, and sticky inflation, affecting all risk assets. High valuation assets in traditional stocks also face the risk of valuation decline, not just pessimism in the cryptocurrency circle.
Viewpoint 2: Data is facing setbacks from all sides.
The PMI value in early March showed that business activity fell to an 11-month low, with input costs and output prices rising simultaneously, and private sector employment experiencing its first contraction in over a year.
Viewpoint 3: High oil prices primarily threaten the valuation of the U.S. stock market.
Barclays points out that if high oil prices push inflation up and force the Federal Reserve to tighten, the S&P 500 could fall to 5900 points by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs has raised its average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 to $85 (with a high-risk scenario reaching $135).
Viewpoint 4: Tariff costs are still directly borne by traditional stocks.
The disclosed impact of tariffs by companies is estimated to total about $21 to $22.9 billion in 2025, and close to $15 billion in 2026.
Viewpoint 5: The underlying vulnerabilities of stocks and the cryptocurrency circle come from different sources.
The core logic of most cryptocurrency assets relies on liquidity and narrative strength, while the core valuation formula for stocks is future profit expectations and valuation multiples.
Viewpoint 6: The current environment should comprehensively lower the optimism towards risk assets.
Assets supported solely by loose liquidity and high valuations can be equated to quasi-cryptocurrency assets. Projects with real profit support, cost pass-through capabilities, or benefiting from capital expenditure can still be held and invested in for the long term.