I just pulled up the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers, and honestly, my stomach dropped. The index fell to 53.3 that’s now below the lows of the 2008 financial crisis. Let that sink in. The last time Americans felt this bleak about the economy, we were watching banks collapse and housing markets crater.
When you look at the chart, you can see sentiment has been sliding for months, but this latest print is a gut punch. It’s not just a bad number it’s a historic low. And it tracks with everything else we’re seeing: gas prices up nearly a dollar since the Iran conflict started, mortgage rates approaching 6.5%, and the 10‑year Treasury yield spiking to 4.39%. People feel it at the pump, in their monthly housing costs, and in their grocery bills.
From my point of view, this sentiment collapse is what happens when inflation expectations hit 5.2% and the Fed keeps telling you rates aren’t coming down. Consumers are exhausted. They’ve been squeezed for years, and now with geopolitical tensions flaring and markets getting volatile, the psychological toll is showing up in the data.
I’ve watched sentiment recover from deep lows before after 2008, after COVID but each time it took a catalyst. Right now, I’m not seeing that catalyst. The consumer is the backbone of the economy, and when sentiment sinks below crisis levels, it starts to affect spending, hiring, and ultimately growth. We’re not in a recession yet, but if confidence stays this depressed, it might become a self‑fulfilling prophecy. I’m hoping we find a floor soon, because 53.3 is not a number anyone should feel comfortable with.
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