Is the big guy really going to set the Middle East on fire? The White House is surprisingly discussing directly cutting off Iran's oil lifeline at Khark Island. While calling for a ceasefire, they are preparing for a 'devastating strike'; the extreme pressure feels just right.

From a macro perspective, if the Strait of Hormuz really stirs up trouble, crude oil is likely to take off right on the spot. Once inflation reignites, the Federal Reserve's thoughts on rate cuts will basically be dashed. Looking at Polymarket, the probability of Iran losing the island by the end of April has even reached 30%; the gamblers are really bold. If this powder keg becomes a reality, risk assets are likely to kneel in respect first, as the knife of liquidity contraction is sharper. The pressure on Bitcoin in the short term is considerable; old investors know that such geopolitical conflicts often act as the fuse for violent spikes. Who would dare to go all in with leverage? #Macro #Iran #Geopolitics #Polymarket $BTC

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