0x29 Operation Log: Oscillation Convergence, Reviewing the Deep Logic Behind Friday's 'Dark Humor'
Good morning. After experiencing the tumultuous events of Friday, the market seems particularly quiet this weekend. BTC has been oscillating above $66,000, while ETH has been fluctuating around the $2,000 mark. The current sideways movement resembles a 'wound bandaging period' after a significant drop.
1. Core Facts (The Facts)
BTC Market: Currently reported at $66,418.66, essentially flat compared to yesterday (-0.03%).
ETH Market: Currently reported at $1,995.39, slightly rebounding (+0.16%).
Technical Status: The 1-hour MACD has entered a weak expansion phase after a golden cross, but the price is hindered by the Bollinger mid-band (BTC: $66,616). Trading volume is extremely low, typical of weekend conditions.
2. In-depth Review: Main Reasons for Friday's Drop
Options Delivery Game: Friday was a significant monthly delivery, with bulls heavily positioned around $70,000. Major funds pierced the 'maximum pain point' downwards to maximize profits, triggering a chain of on-chain liquidations.
PCE Data Disturbance: On Friday evening, the US PCE data slightly exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in inflation. Market expectations for 'June rate cuts' were once again thwarted, causing an instant cooling of risk appetite.
Liquidity 'Vacuum': Under the dual pressure of large deliveries and macro data, the depth of buying was insufficient, leading to a 'free fall' after the price broke below the key structural level of $69,000.
3. Key Outlook (Upcoming Events)
Monday's US Stock Market Opening: [High Certainty] The fund inflow and outflow situation of spot ETFs like BlackRock (IBIT) will determine whether we can reclaim $68,000 next week.
Next Week's Non-Farm Data: This is the biggest macro variable next week, directly affecting the market's pricing of liquidity for the second quarter.
4. Execution Suggestions (Action)
Strategy: 'Play dead over the weekend, enter on Monday.' The current low-volume rebound lacks capital resonance.
Defense: Support level maintained at $65,854 (Bollinger lower band); resistance level at $67,378.
Focus: Now is a suitable time to select 'alpha' varieties that have shown resilience during significant drops, in preparation for next week's initial recovery trend.
☕ Random Thoughts:
After a significant drop, there will be oscillation, and only after the oscillation can there be direction. The sideways movement over the weekend is a gift to rational investors, giving us time to eliminate emotions and review logic. See you tomorrow, Monday.