The Pentagon is really going to take action this time, conspiring to carry out ground operations in Iran for several weeks. The betting odds on Polymarket for a war starting at the end of April have soared to 62%, and it seems this wave of geopolitical crisis is unavoidable.
Once the Middle East powder keg is ignited, the macro transmission logic is very simple: crude oil and gold will soar, while risk assets will bleed. Although there are always people claiming BTC is a safe-haven asset, in the face of such unexpected black swan events, institutions often first withdraw liquidity to preserve capital, and BTC will likely follow the US stock market for a wave of "emergency downturn." This feels too familiar; the big players are worried they have no excuse to wash the market, while retail investors are still betting on a rebound.
In the current situation, everyone should keep their positions steady; don’t wait for peace and end up receiving a margin call text first. Do you think this wave is an opportunity to get on board, or is the harvesting beginning? #Iran #MacroAnalysis #避险情绪 $BTC $ETH
