$BTC is going up to $38,000. Gold is going up to $3,000. I made a post on this yesterday. Many people came into the comments again with different opinions.
If it goes up to $38,000, then BTC has to go. You can apply Michael Saylor logic, SMC, VSA, or anything, but the simplest price action strategy is clearly pointing toward $38,000. It can also push to $36,000 first. I already explained this in the charts.
The reason is technicals. Patterns are forming. The structure is clear. On weekly and monthly, the market is bearish. The bear flag on daily has already broken down and got retested. RSI on H4 and H1 still shows a little cushion, meaning a short-term pump of $2,000–$3,000 is possible to grab liquidity before moving down again.
If today’s closing stays below and weekly closing also confirms below the bear flag, then the move toward $38,000 becomes very likely.
Timeframe matters. In the next 3 weeks, not too far, the move toward $38K–$36K can happen. Just like the move from $90K to $60K happened quickly, this leg can also complete within a month, provided the weekly closing confirms below 66–65K.
Invalidation is clear. If BTC gives two daily closings above $78,000, then this bearish setup fails, and the market can push toward all-time highs again.
On fundamentals, the situation is also aligned. Geopolitical tension, supply disruption in oil, and global uncertainty are increasing. QT has ended, and the market is in an experimental phase again. Inflation pressure can return, and rate hikes may come back.
Bond yields are rising toward 5%. The dollar index is holding strong above 100 and can push toward 104. VIX is elevated and can move higher, showing volatility in equities.
When equities weaken and liquidity flows out, BTC follows. Trillions are moving out of stocks. Investors prefer safer returns. Money markets are offering attractive yields around 4.4%+, which pulls capital away from risk assets like crypto and even gold.
Fam, That's my View. What's you catch?
And That Deserve a "LIKE"...