Ethereum (ETH) price is now up by 2.93% in March, the first green month since August 2025. Every month from September to February closed in the red, resulting in a six-month losing streak during which more than 50% of the ETH value was lost.
With just a few days left in March, the question is whether Ethereum can maintain this gain or if counterforces will cause the month to close red and extend the losing streak to seven months.
March started strong, but the second half tells a different story
The chart of monthly returns shows the damage. In September 2025, ETH dropped by 5.59%. In October, there was a decline of 7.15%. In November, a crash of 22.2%. December lost 0.83%. January 2026 fell by 17.7% and February lost 19.6%.
March is now at +2.93% as the only one in the green, but that percentage hides what has happened in the second half of the month.
On the 4-hour chart, the Ethereum price has been trading within a descending channel since March 16, when the price peaked at $2,380. This channel pushed ETH to a low of $1,970, which is a correction of about 18% from the high in mid-March. The ETH price is now around $2,020, still within the channel and still in a downward trend.
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The gains came in the first half of March. In the second half, these gains have slowly declined again. If the descending channel continues to push the price further down, the last days of March may determine whether the losing streak is broken or continues.
Two metrics based on conviction show that the bears are getting stronger towards the end of the month.
Whales are selling and dip buyers are disappearing
Ethereum whale wallets, excluding exchange addresses, held 122.91 million ETH 48 hours ago. This balance has now decreased to 122.73 million, a reduction of about 180,000 ETH. That moment is notable because it coincides with the price moving towards the bottom of the descending channel.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), a volume-weighted momentum indicator that serves as an indication of buying power, adds another layer of concern. Between March 8 and March 28, the Ethereum price rose on the 4-hour chart. Yet, the MFI actually decreased during that same timeframe.
This bearish divergence means that dip buying has become increasingly weaker in March, even as the monthly price remained green. Each new dip was absorbed with less buying volume than the previous one. When whales simultaneously reduce their ETH and dip buyers disappear, the conviction floor under the current price becomes thinner.
If the broader market continues to weaken, these two metrics indicate that Ethereum may not have enough demand to hold March's gains.
Ethereum price expectation and the $1,970 zone
The key level is $1,972 (the $1,970 zone). This zone has been acting as support since early March.
A 4-hour close below $1,970 would break both the strongest support level (the 0.618 Fib level) and bring ETH closer to the lower boundary of the descending channel.
Below, $1,910 and $1,830 come into play. A breakthrough below $1,830 confirms the bearish pattern, and an expected drop of about 10% from that level targets the $1,650 zone. However, it may take some time before such a decline becomes fully visible.
To relieve the pressure, ETH needs to get back above $2,050 and hold this level. Above that, the upper boundary of the channel is around $2,110, which will become the first real test of strength.
At this moment, $1,970 ensures that Ethereum maintains its first green month in seven months; otherwise, a drop toward $1,650 threatens.