Bitcoin’s rally remains on ice after six months in a bear phase, with the flagship crypto sitting roughly 53% below its cycle high. Prominent analyst Burak Kesmeci says the current price action and on‑chain cost basis data paint a picture of heavy overhead resistance — and that Bitcoin must clear several clustered levels before a genuine trend reversal can be confirmed. Key context - Cycle peak / all‑time high: $126,000 - Local low in this cycle: $60,000 - Current drawdown from ATH: ~53% (within a common correction range of 40%–70%, though past bear markets reached deeper drawdowns of 84% in 2017–18 and 77% in 2021–22) - Timeframe: bear phase has persisted for six months On‑chain resistance and support Kesmeci’s March 27 QuickTake leans heavily on recent on‑chain cost basis mappings to explain why upside is constrained: Major overhead resistance zones (material selling pressure expected) - New whales (coins aged <155 days): cost basis ≈ $82,800 — now a meaningful resistance band well above spot. - Short‑term holders (STH) overall realized price: $86,900 — the critical level Kesmeci identifies as the line Bitcoin must reclaim to argue for a bullish reversal. - STH subgroups: 1M–3M cohort at $82,600; 3M–6M cohort at $96,000. - 365‑day simple moving average: $97,700 — another larger resistance marker. Near‑term resistance - STH 1W–1M cost basis: $70,100 — the nearest overhead cluster, still above current price. Support structure - Binance user deposit addresses (cost basis): ≈ $58,900 — a strong mid‑range support. - Miner‑associated whale wallets: ≈ $55,900 — another base of seller concentration. - Macro realized price (longer‑term support floor): $54,300. What this means Kesmeci argues that “every major cost cluster lies ahead.” In other words, a large portion of recent buyers and short‑term holders are underwater, creating a dense wall of potential selling as prices rise toward those cost bases. Until Bitcoin convincingly reclaims the STH realized price near $86,900, Kesmeci sees little evidence to conclude a sustainable bullish shift or to eye materially higher targets. Market snapshot (at press time) - BTC price (daily chart): $66,012 (down 4.21%) - 24‑hour trading volume: $45.68 billion (up 17.29%) Bottom line On‑chain metrics show both defined support bands and stacked resistance clusters. That structure keeps Bitcoin range‑bound for now: a series of cost‑basis levels must be cleared before the market can reasonably claim a change in direction. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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