Hello everyone. It's been a while since I've updated my position and my outlook, but today I will explain what I expect from Bitcoin over the next 3 to 6 months, both on the lower time frame and the higher time frame, and how I will navigate the market between the two.
Image 2 – Short trade recap at 72-74k
In my last article (two weeks ago Bitcoin Bottom 2026: Where will BTC really bottom? Macro & fractals analysis), I explained why I was bearish around 72k-74k. I was expecting a sweep above the external range high (73.9k). I took my shorts at this level and posted it. Since then, we have indeed had the deviation above and dropped by 9-10%. If you followed the plan, you could have caught this bearish movement.
Market phases: Distribution & Bear Market
Why was I expecting a rejection here? Because 1) the trend is bearish, 2) we are clearly in a bear market. By removing emotions and looking at the structure logically, we are in a complex phase of market maker distribution: accumulation, expansion, distribution, markdown, reaccumulation. We can clearly see the redistribution above the range high, followed by the current bearish push.
Image 4 – My transparent swing shorts
This short that I recently took will be my last swing short of this bear cycle. I have been very transparent: I posted my shorts each time at significant swing highs. I post articles to show exactly my thought process, my bias, and what I expect. If I am wrong, I will admit it.
Projection of 300 days
Many are asking me how I could predict 300 days of price action in advance. The complete answer will be published in a private channel which I will share how to access soon.
Break of the 60k low expected
Over the next 3 to 6 months, I expect the low of 60k to be broken. We will probably have some ranging before, but we will eventually have a deviation below the previous week low at 60k. Comparing to the 2021-2022 cycle, we are in a similar phase: rejection of the range high, then chop before the bearish break.
Duration of the bear market (170 days out of 350-400)
We are only 170 days into this bear market. Historically, bear markets last 350 to 400 days. I don't think we will bottom in just 170 days (that would be twice as fast as previous cycles). I am aiming for a bottom around August-September.
Gradual buying plan (65k → 50k)
My plan is clear: I am already filled at 65k and 60k (I posted this two months ago when we were at 90k). I continue to buy gradually in the 65k-60k-55k-50k-45k zone. My long-term target is 160k to 180k in the next 3-4 years.
Possible ranging for 4 months around 60-70k
We could stay in this range of 60-70k for another 3-4 months (until June-July). Historically, it took 4 months to break a similar previous week low. We are only 50 days into this current range.
Max capitulation & risk/reward
I expect a maximum capitulation below 50k before the real bottom. Even if we bleed down to these levels, the risk/reward to the upside is much more interesting than the downside. I prefer to accumulate gradually rather than try to time the perfect bottom and miss the big bullish movement.
Conclusion
In summary: a lot of chop and ranging await us before the real bottom. We could have another 60-70 days of sideways before breaking 60k, followed by a capitulation. I remain bearish in the short/medium term but I am building my long-term positions starting now.
What do you think? Are you waiting for lower or are you already buying? Let me know in the comments!
This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research.
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