【Visions Under Extreme Panic】The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 12, but mainstream coins are rising against the trend.
When the Fear and Greed Index falls to 12 in the "extreme fear" range, logically, the entire market should be in mourning. However, today's data shows an interesting divergence: $BTC is up 1.4%, $ETH is up 2.0%, and $DOGE has even risen by 2.4%.
This divergence phenomenon is marked as the "Panic Bottom Signal" in my quantitative model. Looking back at history, when the Fear Index fell to 6 in June 2022, $BTC also stabilized and rebounded amidst extreme panic, subsequently initiating a mid-term recovery trend.
More notably, the performance differentiation among altcoins is worth paying attention to. $NOM surged by 44.2%, $ONT rose by 19.5%, indicating that funds are beginning to flow back from stablecoins to risk assets. Particularly, the 7.7% increase of $FET shows that the AI sector can still attract incremental funds in this market environment, indicating that the narrative logic remains strong.
From a technical perspective, $DOGE has broken through the key resistance level of 0.09, and with the "Doge Strategy" becoming a hot topic in the square, the anti-dip ability of Elon Musk's concept stocks amidst extreme panic should not be underestimated.
However, caution is needed regarding trading volume data. Most of the coins on the gainers list have a trading volume of only 10-20M, and insufficient liquidity may amplify volatility. True bottom confirmation requires seeing continued rebounds of mainstream coins combined with increased volume.
From a risk management perspective, it may be worthwhile to consider small positions in $BTC and $ETH at the current level, targeting above 66879 and the previous support turned resistance above 2021.
Do you think this extreme panic is a bottom-fishing opportunity or a continuation of the decline?
NFA, for reference only.
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