Last night at Beijing Guomao waiting for the elevator to go downstairs, it was about nine thirty in the evening, and it seemed like everyone in the building had agreed to retreat together. I watched the numbers drop from the 48th floor, and with each stop, the sense of pressure in the cabin increased. When I reached my floor, as soon as the door opened, it was packed like a sardine can that could burst at any moment. I just tried to stick one foot in, and the overloaded beeping sound rang out sharply. The people inside looked at me expressionlessly, and I also expressionlessly stepped back, watching the elevator door close again. That feeling of powerlessness is quite amusing; you clearly know it will come, you clearly calculated the time, but due to the excessive number of people who entered early, the space left for you had long turned into a negative number. These small moments crushed by established rules are very similar to the experience of unlocking chips in this circle nowadays.
Do you think the elevator is broken? It isn't; it is merely executing a set of pre-established physical weight algorithms faithfully. Similarly, when we are staring at the K-lines fluctuating on Binance's trading interface, most people are unaware that the price resistance often does not break due to technical support levels but rather because there is an invisible 'elevator' hanging above, already filled with people. Today, I don't want to talk about grand narratives; I don't want to recite the white paper. Let's stick to the facts and dissect the current chip structure.
This setup has a total supply firmly capped at 10 billion tokens. According to the latest on-chain search data, the circulating chips currently amount to approximately 1.93 billion tokens. This means that over 80% of the iceberg still remains submerged. If you purely estimate its upside based on the current circulating market cap of about $61.68 million, while completely ignoring the staggering $320 million FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation), it is no different from crossing the road with your eyes closed.
I previously found an extremely class-conscious phenomenon while tracking on-chain fund flows; the current market is fixated on the calendar for trading. According to the latest unlocking schedule, on the upcoming April 28, 2026, SIGN will face a true massive unlocking, with over 401,111,111 tokens expected to hit the market on time. Prior to this, it has actually been releasing liquidity at a fixed rate every month. I ran these real data through the model, and the selling pressure curve was steep enough to be very uncomfortable. When the supply side expands at an extremely certain rhythm, the buying strength becomes the only indicator that can determine life or death.
However, we cannot unilaterally view this unlocking as purely toxic. The selling pressure is transparent, and everyone can see it. Interestingly, many times this transparency will be preemptively gamed by the market. I noticed that the project team hasn't just sat back and let the chips flood in; they are currently promoting a plan called 'Orange Basic Income' (OBI), attempting to allocate 100 million tokens as rewards to encourage users to hold their coins for self-custody, rather than throwing them into the exchange order books to dump. This tactic is actually quite clever; it essentially locks current liquidity using future expectations, serving as a defensive strategy under massive selling pressure. I believe the subtle power struggle between bulls and bears is what makes this market most fascinating: on one side are the heavy unlocking chips held by early investors and the team, and on the other side is the attempt to use a lockup mechanism to delay the dam from breaking.
But can this completely offset the remaining 8 billion tokens' pressure in late April and in the long years to come? I personally hold a very cautious attitude. When a project's circulating amount is less than twenty percent, its price is often highly distorted. The current coin price reflects more of a short-term consensus of the 1.93 billion chips rather than a long-term consensus of 10 billion chips. I infer that with the continuous enlargement of unlocking gates in the coming quarters, the moment that truly tests the real thickness of buying in the market has just begun. Without extremely strong real business revenue to sustain buybacks, by the way, they did conduct a $12 million buyback action last August. Simply relying on community lockup cannot prevent the flood.
In liquidity pools as deep as Binance, smart money has already calculated every penny of selling pressure to two decimal places. Retail investors are often easily swayed by short-term surges or emotional highs, but large funds always look at the future's balance sheet. In this long process of chip dilution, who is buying and who is selling has already been written into the timestamps of smart contracts.
This is indeed a very cruel liquidity game. Most people only see how splendid the decoration outside the elevator is, but they do not know that it is already packed inside with various interested parties. When the huge unlocking countdown hits zero on April 28, the door will open on time. By that time, you better have figured out whether you are waiting inside the elevator to hand over your chips to others or standing outside, bewildered by the overload alarm.