ETH fell 60%, but the ETF is quietly stopping the bleeding.
From the ATH, ETH's retracement curve has formed a classic double bottom structure — it dropped to -50% last September, rebounded to -20%, and then began the second round of sell-off in December, now resting around -60%.
Two rounds of panic, two rounds of clearing. So the question arises: who is selling?
The answer is hidden in the ETF's cash flow.
Since the end of December last year, the ETH spot ETF has experienced a rare continuous net outflow. Each red bar represents institutional funds retreating, with several days of net outflows exceeding 50,000 ETH in a single day — directly corresponding to the price crash.
In mid-January, during that wave of outflow, ETH dropped directly from $3,200 to $2,400. In late February, it fell from $2,800 to $2,000. Two major bloodlettings, two price halving.
But in recent days, a subtle change is happening.
The red bars are getting shorter. A few green bars have even started to appear.
What does this indicate? Institutional selling is waning. It doesn’t mean they are coming back to buy the dip, rather that those who needed to exit have already done so. Like a wound, the bleeding will eventually stop on its own.
So can we enter the market now?
To be honest, I don’t know. A -60% retracement is indeed an extreme area in ETH's history, but "extreme" does not mean "bottomed out". The last time ETH fell to this level was in mid-2022, and it took another half a year to truly find the bottom.
But one thing is certain: if the ETF outflow has peaked, then one day in the future when the cash flow reverses, those buying around $2,000 will become the luckiest buyers of this round.
The premise is — you have to endure every day before it reverses.
