Why the crash? A few things hitting us at once
1. Massive options expiry — $14.16B in Bitcoin options settled March 27, the biggest quarterly expiry of 2026. Max pain was at $75K, we were trading way below that, so most bullish positions got wiped . Over 122,000 traders liquidated, $451M in losses .
2. Geopolitics — Iran threat to block a second oil chokepoint (Bab el-Mandeb) on top of Hormuz. Oil spiked above $103, inflation fears spiked, and risk assets got dumped .
3. Macro mess — Fed revised 2026 PCE inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7% at their March 18 meeting. Markets went from pricing rate cuts to... now pricing potential rate hikes . 10-year Treasury near 4.5%, dollar up — money flows out of crypto when yields rise.
How Q1 is ending: Not great tbh. Bitcoin sitting around $66K-$67K, down about 47% from its October all-time high . This March close is shaping up to be the sixth straight red month for BTC — first time since the 2018 bear market .
Ethereum broke below $2,000 for the first time since mid-2024 . SOL down 72% from highs. Pretty much everything in the red.
What to watch: The $66K level is key. Daily close below that and some analysts are calling for $50K . On the bright side, stablecoin supply is near a record $316B — capital is still in the ecosystem, just waiting on the sidelines .
If we get any ceasefire news or oil cools off, could see a quick bounce. But right now? Just riding out the chop