The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has decreased by about 9% since it quickly reached near 72,000 USD on March 25, resulting in all profits over the past 30 days being wiped out, and now the price is down by -2.6% for the month, with the latest movement stabilizing around 66,900 USD over the past 24 hours.
This decline has created a bearish signal from one pattern on the 12-hour chart. However, there is a hidden bullish divergence signal indicating that a short-term bounce may occur. Whether this rebound has enough strength to break through the upper resistance will still depend on the on-chain data.
Head and Shoulders broke on the 12-hour chart.
On the 12-hour price chart for BTC, a head and shoulders pattern has been developing since late February, with the neckline at around 67,700 USD, and this neckline break occurred on March 27.
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Theoretically, the target measurement from this pattern indicates a chance that the price may drop another 12% from the neckline. If true, the price of Bitcoin may break below the psychological line at 60,000 USD to test the level of 59,400 USD.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum indicator, gives the opposite signal. Between February 28 and March 27, prices created higher lows, but the RSI created lower lows.
This hidden bullish divergence, which often indicates a continuation trend rather than a reversal, has already caused a bounce of 1.87% from the latest low.
This divergence suggests that the price level around 65,000 USD may temporarily hold selling pressure. However, such a rebound still faces strong resistance above, and whales that normally help push the price back do not have enough confidence at this time.
More than 6% of the supply is between USD66,900 and USD69,400.
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) index, which is a metric from Glassnode showing the price range where the current Bitcoin supply last moved, reveals three dense groups directly above the current price.
At the price of 66,900 USD (close to the current price), there is a total supply of approximately 2.37% that has changed hands recently, while at the price of 68,100 USD, there is another 1.96%, and at 69,400 USD, there is another 1.96%. In total, about 6.29% of the entire BTC supply is concentrated in the price range 2,500 USD above the point where Bitcoin is currently trading.
These groups act as resistance, as holders who bought at those price levels and are now near the break-even point tend to sell when a bounce occurs to exit with the least loss.
Whale behavior confirms concerns in these Bitcoin supply zones at the moment, with the largest holders between 100,000 and 1 million BTC reducing their holdings from 675,200 to 670,000 on March 24, a decrease of 5,200 BTC.
Meanwhile, the medium-sized group (10,000 to 100,000) has seen reductions and recoveries, ending at around 2.25 million, with only the smallest whale group (1,000 to 10,000) showing a slight increase from 4.21 million to 4.22 million.
The net result when combining all groups together is a slight increase of around 4,800 BTC. However, confidence is not as strong as the numbers suggest.
The largest wallet, which has the most influence on market direction, has reduced its holdings by 5,200 BTC, while the increase of 10,000 BTC from the smallest group has not been able to offset the market pressure as the selling from large holders in the past often leads to further weakness, while the buying from smaller groups is merely accumulation during the drop, which is often absorbed by overhead supply.
Therefore, any bounce from the hidden bullish divergence is likely to be trapped in the range of 66,900 USD to 69,400 USD (which is the previously mentioned supply zone).
Forecasting Bitcoin price and support at USD 66,600
The key level that determines Bitcoin's direction immediately is 66,600 USD. Staying above this level means that the short-term supply has not caused severe selling. If Bitcoin rebounds from here, it could lead to a price rise to 68,700 USD and the psychological level of 70,000 USD.
However, reaching 70,000 USD must pass through all three supply zones. Due to weak whale confidence, a rebound below 70,000 USD remains at risk of new selling pressure, and the downtrend structure will only start to weaken when it rises above 72,000 USD, which is the peak of the right shoulder.
As for the support level, if it breaks below 66,600 USD, the downside opens up to 65,200 USD and 63,300 USD. If it goes lower than that, the target measurement according to the head-and-shoulders pattern at around 12% would lead to the zone of 59,400 USD, causing Bitcoin to drop below 60,000 USD for the first time since the lows in February.
For now, 66,600 USD is the dividing line between a slight rebound to 69,400 USD and breaking down below the level of 60,000 USD according to measurable targets.