MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK (30/03 - 05/04/2026)
Next week will be a week full of fluctuations as the market has to balance between geopolitical risks and important economic data from the U.S.
GEOPOLITICAL VARIABLES: MIDDLE EAST TENSION
The market is holding its breath watching the negotiations between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Every statement from President Trump could cause significant volatility.
Inflation pressure: Conflict has caused energy prices to soar, raising concerns that central banks may raise interest rates in April to curb inflation.
IMPORTANT U.S. ECONOMIC DATA (UTC+7)
Tuesday (31/03): 04:00: Fed NY President Williams speaks.
22:00: Release of job openings data (JOLTs) and Consumer Confidence Index.
Wednesday (01/04): 20:15: Change in non-farm employment (ADP).
21:45: Global manufacturing PMI S&P index.
23:00: Ms. Logan (voting member of FOMC 2026) speaks.
Thursday (02/04): 20:30: Initial jobless claims.
G7 Finance Ministers meeting.
Friday (03/04) 20:30: Non-farm payroll report, Unemployment rate, and Average hourly earnings for March.
Focus is on the labor market: Non-farm data is expected to be very positive. If the actual figures are stronger than expected, the Fed will have even more reason to maintain a "hawkish" stance (keeping interest rates high or increasing further).
The market has now accepted the scenario of prolonged high interest rates. However, if the employment data unexpectedly weakens, it could be a "game changer" for Gold and Crypto as previously mentioned in analyses.
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