Confidence eased on Monday.
Trump has postponed the attacks on Iran's energy facilities, and the global market's first reaction was very direct: the dollar turned around, stock index futures rose, European stocks rebounded from a 2.2% drop to a 0.7% increase, and oil prices also eased initially. The market was not suddenly optimistic; at that moment, everyone reacted as if the worst-case scenario had not immediately occurred.
Suspicion began on Tuesday.
The day before, the breath had not yet been caught, and Iran denied negotiations, causing oil prices to be raised again, with WTI in the Asian session briefly returning to 89.44. Precious metals did not have it easy either, with spot gold dropping to 4389.26 that day, and earlier in the week, it had hit a low of 4097.99. The 4500 level was basically lost in the first half of the week. On the market, silver was also pressed to lower positions.
The market believed in negotiations once again on Wednesday.
The US's 15-point plan is still circulating, and the market is initially moving as if there will be an opportunity for easing. Brent returned to 102.22, WTI to 90.32, and US stocks had a bit of recovery that day, with the Dow rising 0.66%, S&P rising 0.54%, and Nasdaq rising 0.77%. Gold even surged to 4552.94 on the same day. In simple terms, the breath on Wednesday wasn’t because the problem was solved, but the market gave the negotiations a chance.
On Thursday, the market was awakened again by oil prices.
The easing expectations didn't hold, and oil prices reversed sharply, with Brent closing at 108.01 and WTI at 94.48. The stock market faced pressure again, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% on the day, officially entering correction. Gold also couldn't hold, with spot gold dropping to 4384.38, and COMEX gold closing down 3.9%. The most truthful statement that day was actually what Reuters wrote: almost everything was falling, except for oil.
On Friday, the market finally made sense of this line.
It's not a sudden overall strength, but rather everyone starting to acknowledge one thing: Hormuz hasn't recovered, oil prices won't go down; if oil prices don't go down, yields and the dollar won't go down; if yields and the dollar don't go down, the stock market won't feel comfortable, and gold and silver can only oscillate while recovering.
So on Friday, you saw both ends happening together: Brent back to 112.57, WTI to 99.64; S&P down 1.67%, Nasdaq down 2.15%, Dow down 1.73%; the dollar index at 100.17; while gold was pulled up to 4554.39 by buying on dips and technical recovery, closing at 4491.78, and silver also returned to around 69.54.
So this week’s real main line is not how much gold has risen, nor how much silver has fallen.
It's a very hard transmission chain:
Middle East risks have not truly eased.
Oil prices can't be suppressed.
Oil prices can't be suppressed.
Inflation worries have returned.
Inflation worries are coming back.
Yields and the dollar are both being pushed up.
The stock market and high-valued assets are feeling the pain first.
Gold and silver can recover, but it won't be smooth.
This line has already been walked by the market from Monday to Friday.
According to this week's market, gold clearly dropped below 4500 in the first half of the week, but then recovered back above 4500 by Friday evening, even surging above 4550 at one point. Silver was first pushed down to around 61, but then recovered to near 71 by Friday evening.
So this week is not a one-sided week; it's really about killing valuations first, then repairing risks, and seeing if the repair can hold.
I don't monitor gold and silver prices over the weekend; I only watch the news.
I will first look at three things:
First, is Hormuz really recovering, or is it just talk, and the ships still dare not leave?
Reuters clearly stated on Friday that two Chinese cargo ships turned back after receiving verbal assurances of safe passage from Iran. The market no longer trusts soothing statements and only looks at real navigation.
Second, will oil prices continue to be pushed up?
Analysts have now raised the Brent average price expectation to 134.62; if Iranian export facilities are attacked again, the average expectation is 153.85, with even more extreme tail risks potentially reaching 200. The frightening aspect of this number is not that it will definitely be reached, but that the market has already started to price in this tail risk.
Third, will next week's data continue to solidify this line?
The most critical next week will still be the US non-farm payrolls. Reuters' current expectation is about 55,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. Additionally, US retail sales, industrial activity, and South Korea's trade data are also important. In other words, what the market needs to confirm next week is: whether this high oil price is just an emotional shock or has already begun to affect employment, consumption, and global trade.
Another point that cannot be overlooked: central banks are now also being forced to restate their positions by oil prices.
On the Asian side, South Korea has already conducted 50 trillion won in bond repurchases and expanded fuel tax exemptions; the Philippines has also specifically held a temporary policy meeting. In Europe, Nagel has already put the rate hike on the table for April, and Schnabel is reminding not to be too anxious. This means everyone knows that oil prices are not just an energy issue; inflation, interest rates, and growth will be affected together.
As for cryptocurrency, this week basically didn't tell a new story; it mostly followed macro risk appetite.
BTC is likely still fluctuating around 66861 by the weekend, with an intraday range of 65552 to 66983. Reuters' first-quarter report also mentioned that BTC can hold a bit in March, but still drops over 20% within the year. This indicates one thing: cryptocurrency is not completely independent of the market; it is still influenced by oil prices, the dollar, and risk appetite.
My understanding of next week is very simple:
If no new bad news comes out over the weekend,
On Monday, we will first see if this Friday's recovery can continue.
First, can gold hold above 4500?
First, can silver hold the support around 70?
If it can hold, this wave of recovery still has backing.
If it can't hold, then Friday's move looks more like a breather after a sharp drop, not that the structure has completely flipped back.
I won't monitor prices over the weekend.
I watch the news.
Which one are you paying more attention to these days:
Hormuz navigation.
Or next week’s non-farm data.
