The current value $ETH is $2068. At the same time, the asset is testing an important Fibonacci retracement level at $2055. Certainly, the coin has been under the influence of two opposing market forces. Old holders are taking profits from previous investments. Simultaneously, major market participants are actively buying up the created offer.
Such a strategy prevents a large structural collapse of the price. The $2000 mark serves as the boundary between these trends. Therefore, the outcome of this confrontation will determine the further direction of the market.
Profit fixation by long-term investors
The HODL Waves chart from the analytical platform Glassnode reflects the behavior of holders with experience ranging from three to five years. The time frame covers the period from late December 2025 to March 26 of the current year. The share of this group remained stable within 14.2%–14.4% until the twenties of January. Then, a gradual decline in indicators began.
The decline accelerated sharply on the right side of the chart. From March 21 to 26, the volume of assets in the considered category decreased to 12.8%. The difference amounted to almost 0.8% in just one week. In fact, this is the second-largest stage of coin distribution among this cohort for the entire year.
Representatives of this group acquired $ETH between 2021 and 2023. During that time, the market experienced both peaks around $5000 and deep lows. Many buyers at the peak value are still carrying unrealized losses. However, participants in the downward cycle are now realizing significant profits. Therefore, they consciously close positions at current prices. Such flight is not a panic sell-off. On the contrary, it is a systematic realization of profit.
Active accumulation of digital assets
Distribution data from Santiment illustrates the behavior of various categories of addresses. The statistics account for wallets with balances from 10,000 to 10 million coins. Since March 25, a clear shift in ownership structure has been observed.
The group of medium holders sold about 370,000 units of the asset in recent days. Contrary to expectations, this realization did not lead to significant pressure on quotes. Moreover, the two largest categories of investors proportionally increased their balances. At the current value, the transfer of 370,000 coins is equivalent to $765 million. These funds moved from medium holders to the largest network participants.
It is this dynamic that allows the price to stay above $2000. Institutions are absorbing volumes that are being offloaded by smaller players. As long as purchases continue to offset sellers' supply, a reliable fundamental barrier against further decline is being formed.
Technical analysis and price prospects
The daily chart shows trading at the level of $2068. The nearest resistance is the 50-day exponential moving average at the mark of $2186. Additionally, the Fibonacci retracement grid is built from a zero base of $1750 to a maximum of $3045.
The $2055 zone has become the main arena of struggle since early March. Each session testing this threshold ended with a close above the line or subsequent recovery. Currently, the price $ETH is once again applying pressure on this support. Undoubtedly, the outcome of the current test will indicate the next target. Below $2055 lies a horizontal support at $1928. It represents the last line of defense before a potential drop to $1838.
Canceling the negative scenario requires a return above the mark of $2244. After that, the next target will be the level of $2397, and then $2550. At the same time, a sustained move towards $2550 will require an acceleration of capital influx from large funds. It is also necessary to ease the pressure from sellers. Ultimately, such a scenario will only become likely with the stabilization of the entire segment of digital currencies above the level of $2000.