Binance Research concludes that the price of oil has a minimal impact on the quotation of Bitcoin, noting that the historical correlation between both assets is close to zero and only increases in extreme economic moments. This dismantles the idea that fluctuations in crude oil directly explain the behavior of BTC.
đ Main findings of the Binance Research report
Historical correlation close to zero: Data shows that Bitcoin and oil do not move in sync in the long term.
Extreme moments: The correlation may increase in situations of global crisis, geopolitical tensions, or inflationary shocks, but it is temporary.
Recent decoupling: In 2026, both assets show divergent dynamics, questioning the narrative that BTC depends on oil.
Implication for investors: Avoid decisions based on supposed erroneous causalities between commodities and cryptocurrencies.
â ď¸ Risks and considerations
Confusing correlation with causation: Point coincidences do not mean that oil determines the price of BTC.
Independent volatility: Both assets may react to similar macroeconomic factors (inflation, crisis), but in different ways.
Market narratives: Some analysts exaggerate links to justify movements, which can lead to investment errors.
đ Conclusion
The Binance report minimizes the influence of oil on Bitcoin, reinforcing the idea that BTC follows its own market logic. For investors in Colombia and around the world, this means that decisions about cryptocurrencies should be based on factors specific to the crypto ecosystem (adoption, regulation, liquidity), rather than on the behavior of traditional commodities like crude oil.