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I know that in the past few days everyone has been opening market software, watching the numbers in their accounts continuously shrink, feeling the pain in their hearts. From the peak of $126,000 in December 2025, it has plummeted down, approaching a nearly halved (48%) extreme cold drawdown, which has completely annihilated countless high-leverage players.
Today, the on-chain data and macro research reports from various top institutions have completely revealed the truth. Stop blindly bottom-fishing! Flying Fish will directly help you tear apart the illusions of the market and see what kind of cruel trap the Wall Street giants are setting up:
1. Abandon the fantasy of a 'V-shaped reversal': the cruel judgment of time cycles.
In this market, the violent decline in space is not scary; what torments people the most is the 'strangulation of time.'
Currently, Bitcoin is teetering on the 60,000 mark. According to the iron law of historical cycles, for every 10% increase in the decline, the recovery period will be extended by nearly 80 days! If 60,000 is the bottom, we still have to endure nearly 300 days on this wasteland.
But brothers, if the 60,000 defense line is completely lost, panic selling will smash the price into the abyss of 40,000 to 45,000, with an overall pullback exceeding 60%! What does this mean? It means the overall market recovery cycle will be ruthlessly extended to over 440 days, and we may not see the former prosperity again until the second quarter of 2027!
2. On-chain底牌曝光: Whales are conducting the most brutal 'distribution' in history.
Don't listen to those big influencers in the market who shout every day that 'a drop is an opportunity to buy more.' Look at the most真实的 bloody data on-chain!
Currently, the selling pressure from large holders holding massive amounts of chips has reached the highest peak in nearly 18 months! The liquidity in the spot and futures markets is being violently drained.
What's even scarier is the Comprehensive Market Index (BCMI). Historically, during major bottoms, this index has plunged to extreme lows of 0.12 to 0.15. And now? The index is still hanging at a high of 0.27! This means that the market bubble has not been completely squeezed out, and there is still a bottomless space for further declines!
3. The macro environment's meat grinder is still running at full speed.
Why are the whales running? Because the Federal Reserve's high-interest scythe is still raised high. Under the macro pressure of sustained high interest rates and even expectations of rate hikes, global liquidity is locked tightly. Without the macro floodgates working together, any rebound is merely the main force's dead cat bounce to lure more investors!
Conclusion:
In this extremely brutal deleveraging cycle, staying alive is more important than anything!
Stop all dangerous actions of counter-trend averaging down, cut off all high leverage that keeps you awake at night. Keep the remaining bullets tightly in your pocket. The real bottom has never been guessed; it has always been cut out by countless people in despair. Be patient, hold on to the spot bottom position, and endure this long winter!