Brothers, this prediction is somewhat tragic—if BTC falls below $60,000, the market's recovery to historical highs may be delayed until 2027.
Let me break down the logic behind this prediction for you:
First, why is $60,000 crucial?
This level is the cost line for many institutions. The average ETF holding cost is around $65,000, the Strategy cost is about $75,000, and the miners' cost is approximately $80,000. If it falls below $60,000, it means almost all institutions will be in floating losses, and market confidence will be severely impacted. Historically, once a crucial cost area is breached, the recovery cycle often extends.
Second, how was 2027 calculated?
Theoretically, after the halving in 2024, 2025 should be the main bullish wave, but due to a complex macro environment (high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts), the market has been delayed. If it falls below $60,000 again now, the market will need to rebuild its base, change hands, and accumulate confidence. Based on historical cycles, the next explosive window indeed appears to be in 2027.
Third, is this prediction accurate?
I'll give you an objective assessment: "if it falls below" is a premise, not a certainty. Currently, BTC is still around $68,000, leaving 12% room to $60,000. ETFs are still flowing in, and whales are bottom-fishing around $68,000; the market is not without support.
Implications for us:
· $60,000 is the last line of defense. If it really gets there, don’t hesitate, buy in batches.
· Don’t be scared away by predictions. Predictions like “delayed until 2027” aim to cause panic among retail investors to cut losses.
· Hold onto your spot, wait for the wind to come. The macro environment will eventually warm up; the key is whether you're still on board.
Operationally, hold onto your spot at $68,000, do not leverage. If it really falls below $65,000, I will increase my position.
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