I stared at the screen, my hands shaking a bit.
It's not because I lost, but because— the Middle East has really exploded.
On the night of March 21, 2026, Trump posted a tweet on social media with just one sentence: 48-hour countdown. In just a few words, the global energy market went into a frenzy.
Do you know why?
Because the place Trump is targeting is called Hark Island. This island is only six kilometers long and three kilometers wide, but it controls nearly 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. The island is filled with oil tanks, pipelines, and energy facilities. Once taken, Iran's oil exports would be cut by more than half, it would be a complete stop.
Trump's script is like this:
On the surface, it's a 48-hour ultimatum. Two days later, he announces 'negotiations are going well,' postponing the airstrike by five days, putting on a show of wanting to negotiate. But in reality? During these five days, the 3,000 soldiers from the U.S. 82nd Airborne Division just happened to be quietly deployed to the Persian Gulf. In two weeks, the troop strength doubled.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry directly exposed this lie: there is no negotiation at all.
What Trump is playing is, in simple terms, to make a show on one hand while secretly doing something else. Treating the whole world as fools.
Now the U.S. military's operational plan has been released:
First wave: 2,000 Marines landing from the sea.
Second wave: 3,000 from the 82nd Airborne Division, airdrop reinforcements.
The goal of the two waves is only one - to completely capture Halk Island and block Iran.
But to be honest, I think the U.S. military's operation this time is a bit precarious.
The waters surrounding Halk Island are already filled with mines by Iran. The landing craft may explode even before approaching. Although the Airborne Division is well-equipped, during the airdrop, they are sitting ducks for anti-air missiles. The defending troops on the island are elite members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, familiar with the terrain, waiting for the U.S. military to deliver their heads.
Iran is not easy to deal with either. They have long been prepared to block the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly one-third of the world's oil passes through there, and once blocked, the global energy market will collapse directly.
More critically, the surrounding countries are not fools either. Saudi Arabia does not want the flames of war to reach its oil fields, Iraq has clearly stated that they will not allow U.S. troops to use their bases, and Russia and China will not sit idly by.
What Trump is doing, in simple terms, is not for 'regional peace', but to create momentum for the elections. The domestic economy is in shambles, inflation is high, and he needs a war to shift the contradictions and gain votes. By the way, he aims to choke Iran's oil exports, control global oil prices, and consolidate hegemony.
But he has clearly miscalculated.
Iran is not Iraq, nor Afghanistan. They have a complete military industrial system, a strong Revolutionary Guard, and deep national cohesion. Even if the U.S. military can temporarily seize Halk Island, they will fall into a long-term guerrilla war.
Now everyone is watching Trump's next move. But one thing is certain:
Trying to oppress Iran with hegemony is destined to fail.
This game has just begun. The fluctuations in oil prices may just be an appetizer.