“The bear market has started” — No one is refuting this now, but looking at this decline, I am a bit confused: it's only been a month and it's so severe.
If the bear market really lasts a year, will it end up at zero?
What makes me even more vigilant is the long-short ratio, which is frighteningly high, indicating a bunch of people are busy trying to catch the bottom.
To be honest, I would rather wait until the trend is completely clear before taking action, rather than being a “bag holder.”
I firmly believe it will continue to decline, and it’s not just a wild guess. First, the four-year cycle has completely ended, with daily, weekly, and monthly lines all breaking down, and the trend is incredibly weak — this is the hardest signal.
Secondly, it’s even more contradictory that even though the market is in such a panic, the funding rates for BTC and ETH perpetual contracts are still positive — surprisingly, the bulls still hold the mainstream, this bubble hasn't been fully squeezed out.
Take the time BTC broke below $100,000; the rebound was so weak it was like it hadn’t eaten, and it still hasn’t climbed back above $100,000 — this momentum doesn’t look like it’s going to reverse.
There’s also a big shock: the U.S. may attack Venezuela, and there’s no telling if a big country will intervene; if a war breaks out, who would still dare to enter a high-risk market? Big capital is just watching, what are we small traders rushing in for?
What annoys me the most is social media, where a bunch of people are shouting “great opportunity to catch the bottom.” How many times in BTC's history has there been extreme panic, only to have a small rebound and then fall back into the abyss?
The reversal signal in my heart is very clear: no one is shouting to catch the bottom anymore, the volume ratio of ETH perpetual contracts is lower than that of BTC, and the mainstream spot trading volume continues to hit bottom — only then is it worth fighting for a small rebound.
At this position, if you really want to enter the market, you can only try a small position in spot trading, and the stop-loss line must be strictly defined — in case of an extreme drop, those coin and stock companies will have to liquidate, and during a cascade, there’s no escape.
There’s also a particularly painful detail: after October 11th, liquidity has been decreasing, new entrants are all withdrawing, and funds are only flowing out, with no hope of recovery in the short term.
To be honest, trading is too exhausting now; I want to catch the bottom but am afraid of being trapped, and I want to short but am afraid of missing out.
But the more chaotic it gets, the more we must stick to discipline, and not be led by FOMO emotions. Before the trend reverses, “waiting” is the best strategy.
As long as those voices shouting “catch the bottom” haven’t disappeared, we can just be “bystanders” and preserving capital is more important than anything else. #特朗普缓和局势 #美伊和谈陷僵局 $ETH
