XAU Death Cross Confirmed! Is the rebound a trap? If it can't get past 4550, it will fall further!

Were the fans of the Great Sage happy yesterday? Going long at 4410, target 4490, precisely exiting at 4493, safely pocketing 3600U! But today the market has changed, don’t use yesterday's thinking for today’s trades, let me break it down.

News:

The US-Iran conflict escalates, the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, and rising crude oil prices push up inflation expectations. However, Fed officials are intensifying hawkish signals, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has completely reversed; the market is even starting to price in the possibility of rate hikes. The US dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields rise, and global liquidity tightens.

News Summary: There is short-term geopolitical risk aversion, but the shift in monetary policy towards tightening poses substantial pressure on gold, making the overall news sentiment bearish.

Technical Analysis:

On the 1-hour chart, the overall trend of XAU is downward. The MACD white and yellow lines form a death cross above the 0 axis, and the green bars continue to expand, indicating that bearish momentum is being concentrated and released. Resistance above is at 4550, with strong resistance at 4651; support below is at 4435, with strong support at 4365.

Technical Summary: Death cross confirmed, bears are dominant, rebound strength is limited, and there is heavy selling pressure above.

Trading Idea:

If the rebound is under pressure around 4550, consider light short positions; first look for 4435, then 4365. Do not chase long positions, do not bottom fish.

Personal Opinion:

The market is very likely to rebound and test 4550 first, but it will be difficult to break directly to 4651; the main tone is to rise and fall back while continuing to seek a bottom. For those looking to trade in waves, control your hands and wait for high short opportunities. For those wanting to follow real-time strategies, pay attention to the Great Sage, join the big family, and the next order will bring you along to profit! #特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争