The Federal Reserve has locked liquidity, the technical side of ETH has completely deteriorated, and those trying to bottom fish are already queuing up on the rooftop.
The macro situation lacks money, the technology has broken down, and bottom fishing now is just sending people to their doom. The Federal Reserve is playing dead: interest rates stubbornly cling to 3.75%, Powell is tougher than a rock, large funds are all in the bank earning interest, who cares about buying coins? The Middle East is still in turmoil, oil prices at 100, this is stagflation. In this kind of market, institutions are the first to cut high-risk assets like those in the crypto space.
Fundamentals cannot solve immediate needs. L2 is too cheap, the mainnet cannot make money, ETFs are still experiencing net outflows daily, Vitalik is still nitpicking, and market confidence is shattered. The big renovation plan in 2026 and anti-quantum sounds great, but that's next year's issue, it cannot solve today's crash.
The K-line is looking terrible, dropping from 2200 to 1966, just rebounding to the doorstep of 2000. The moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and trading volume is shrinking, typical of a downward continuation pattern.
The liquidation chart shows that the area from 2000 to 2050 is full of mines, a long stop-loss area. The current price is 1999, just stuck below the minefield; as long as it doesn't rise, it will have to explode downwards.
My operational advice is to absolutely avoid bottom fishing. If 1966 breaks, look directly at 1900, beneath which is a vacuum zone. If you want to go long, wait for a signal to at least stabilize above 2050 before talking; right now, it's all false rebounds. If you want to short, go with the trend and short lightly on a rebound to 2000-2020, with a stop loss at 2050, which is quite safe.
Currently, this market situation is due to tight macro conditions and bad technology combined with a lack of trust. Don't try to guess the bottom, let the bullets fly for a while. Keep an eye on 1966; if it breaks, just go to sleep. Until it breaks, any rebound is just an opportunity for you to short.
The market has experienced a crash, blood has flowed like a river, and soon I will prepare some strong coins suitable for bottom fishing as a recovery plan. Those who want to follow the strategy, please contact 进聊天室.
