A few friends have asked about the recent continuous decline of XRP. Here, I will discuss the current supply structure and several details worth noting based on the on-chain data from Ripple Treasury:
From the Ripple Treasury Balance perspective, before August of last year, the treasury balance was about 400 million XRP, which belonged to a relatively stable range.
However, an unusual behavior appeared at the end of October that caught my attention:
1. The treasury balance suddenly surged from 400 million to nearly 500 million XRP. The time coincides with XRP starting to rise from around $2 to $3.5.
2. Starting from November, the treasury balance has been continuously declining: 500 million → 300 million → 200 million → close to zero. During the same period, the price dropped from $3.5 to the current $1.33.
3. In the composition of positions, the red Evernorth Holdings occupies the vast majority. This means that it is not retail investors selling, but Ripple-associated entities continuously and rhythmically releasing chips.
Based on this calculation, this is a planned high-level distribution behavior: first enriching the treasury → raising prices → continuing to sell.
Now let's look at Quarterly & Monthly Price Performance:
Last year's Q3 surge saw a quarterly increase of over 50%. However, from Q4 last year to now, the monthly performance has been almost entirely negative. Occasionally, a week shows an orange positive value, but the downward trend at the monthly level has not changed. This is consistent with what we often say in BTC: 'A small rebound won't change the overall direction.'
So now that the treasury is nearly empty, does that mean the selling pressure is about to end?
In theory, this is indeed the case. But the problem is that a large number of trapped chips have accumulated in the $2-$3 range. These are the positions retail investors took during Ripple's selling, and each rebound will encounter selling pressure from releasing trapped positions. This structural pressure cannot be resolved just by emptying the treasury; it requires time and ample rotation to digest.
So my personal view is that: in the short term, a technical rebound due to reduced selling pressure cannot be ruled out; however, for it to truly break out in the medium term, two conditions need to be met —
1. The trapped positions in the $2-$3 range have fully rotated;
2. Ripple no longer unlocks new supply from custodial accounts.
Before this, every rebound is worth being vigilant about.