The prediction market has a total processing volume of over 154 billion USD, with daily trading on Polymarket alone often exceeding 300 million USD.
The size in question raises more important questions. These platforms no longer seem like niche betting places, as they increasingly resemble retail trading.
This analysis uses data on the blockchain, focusing on Polymarket—which is the largest platform in terms of both users and transactions—in a market dominated by Polymarket–Kalshi to examine this change straightforwardly.