Bittensor (TAO) is trading at $322, a decrease of 6.97% today after the price briefly touched $380 on March 26.
On the 2-day chart, it can be seen that TAO broke the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance at $306, a zone that held back every rally for four months. But this rise stopped immediately.
TAO holders' sentiment drove the breakout
The Santiment weighted sentiment graph shows the period from March 3 to 26, 2026. The TAO sentiment rose above 5.0 on March 25 — the highest value on the graph — when the price surged towards $380. On March 26, however, the sentiment dropped to 0.684 while the price fell sharply.
This pattern has occurred two more times this month. On March 13, sentiment surged before the price dropped from $305 to $260. On March 19, after a new sentiment peak, there was again a drop from $290 to $250. Each time, strong sentiment coincided exactly with a local TAO price high and not with a lasting increase.
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The current value of 0.684 is not yet negative, but the rapid drop from above 5.0 to 0.684 in one session follows the same pattern as before. The sentiment caused investors to buy TAO at high prices, but it is now retreating, which has diminished buying pressure.
Breaking through this ceiling could be beneficial for TAO
The TAO liquidation heatmap shows data from March 26 and 27. The bright yellow zone on the heatmap — the area with the most liquidation leverage — is around $364, with $2.98 million in liquidation leverage exactly at this level. Above $364, the total outstanding short liquidation leverage rises to $17.81 million.
A short squeeze of $17.81 million can be a strong catalyst if activated. If TAO breaks through $364, these short positions are forced to close, which could drive the price up towards $407 and possibly $469. But the $2.98 million leverage around $364 also acts as a magnet: it absorbs buying pressure and first forms a ceiling before potentially serving as a springboard.
With sentiment already having declined and the price retreating from $380 without a clear breakthrough of $364, a short squeeze seems unlikely at this moment. No new buying wave is visible in the sentiment data or price structure.
TAO price expectation: fallback to the $306 zone for further continuation
TAO consolidated for four months under the red resistance below the 0.618 level at $306. The executed breakout shows an increase of 20.33% in the past week, as TAO finally managed to escape that zone.
The MFI adds even more weight to the bearish outlook in the short term. The MFI rose above the overbought threshold last week. Every time this happened before, it coincided with a local price high.
In September 2024, the MFI rose above the overbought threshold while TAO nearly recorded $700. In May 2025, the MFI reached this level again before the price dropped from $450 to $300. The current value of 77.79 places TAO in the same area as during previous major declines.
TAO at $322 is above the previous resistance. But if it closes the day below $306, the breakout has failed and the 0.5 level at $275 and then the 0.382 level at $243 come into view as the next support levels.
Bullish invalidation only occurs with a 2-day closing price above $364. Then a short squeeze of $17.81 million is activated, and the price mechanically rises to the 1.0 level at $407 and then to the 1.236 level at $469. If a closing price above $364 does not occur, the four-month resistance that TAO just escaped may dominate again.