I have been silent for a long time about Solana, watching this euphoric rally, but what I see on the chart now leaves me no choice. If you are used to blind longs and 'eternal growth', this post may not please you. But numbers and patterns have no emotions. They have objectives.
Technical analysis: The Death Loop is formed
Look at my screenshot from TradingView. We are facing not just a local correction. We are facing a global reversal pattern 'Head and Shoulders' that has been forming for months.
Left Shoulder: We formed it at the beginning of 2024 when the market was full of hope.
Head: The peak of euphoria. This is where most of you bought 'at the highs', believing in $300 and above.
Right Shoulder: The current situation. Note how the right shoulder is below the head — this is a classic sign of buyer exhaustion.
Indicators confirm the inevitable:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is falling below the cloud. The Tenkan and Kijun lines have crossed in a 'death cross'. This is a signal that the mid-term trend is completely broken.
Bollinger Bands: Look at the narrowing bands and how the price starts to 'slide' along the lower boundary. This indicates the beginning of a strong downward movement.
52W H/L: We are trading dangerously close to annual lows. Breaking the yellow dotted line is a trigger for mass liquidations.
My goal: A drop of -57%
I placed a measurement (blue arrow on the chart). The height of the 'head' projects down from the neckline. The math is simple and harsh: the target drop is the zone $54 - $60.
This means a collapse of more than 57% from current levels. Are you ready for your SOL portfolio to be halved? The price is currently trapped in a narrow bearish flag (white lines at the end of the chart). This is the last stop before the jump into the abyss.
Crowd psychology vs Whale calculations
Why is this happening? While retail traders are buying every 'dip', large players (smart money) are using these bounces to unload their huge positions on your liquidity. Forming the right shoulder is the perfect trap. You were given hope for a recovery so that you wouldn’t exit your positions.
I work systematically. My challenge of turning $100 into $23,700 on TradFi taught me one thing: the most important thing is to recognize a dump in time. SOL is currently the number one candidate for the title of 'Biggest Disappointment of the Year'.
What should you do?
I am not urging you to short mindlessly. I am urging you to open your eyes.
If you are long — where is your stop?
If you are waiting for an entry point — are you really going to buy right before the drop?
👇 Question to the community:
Who still believes in 'Solana at $500' and is ready to hold through such a drawdown? Or do you, like me, see this obvious technical verdict?
Write your target in the comments. If I see 50 likes — I will analyze the $54 zone in more detail: is it worth catching a bounce there or will it just be an intermediate station before the bottom.