The chances of the Iran war not ending in a few days and continuing for months with other countries joining are quite high. Here's why:
- Escalation: The conflict has already escalated with multiple countries involved, including the US, Israel, and several Gulf states. Iran has launched retaliatory strikes, and Israel has threatened to "escalate and expand" its attacks .
- No clear resolution: Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, but there's no clear indication of a ceasefire or resolution. The US has proposed a 15-point plan, but Iran has presented a counter-proposal, and talks are stalled.
- Regional involvement: Other countries, like Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iraq's Shia militias, are already involved. There's a risk of further escalation if other nations, like Russia or China, get drawn in.
- Economic interests: The conflict is affecting global oil prices and trade, which could lead to more countries getting involved to protect their interests .
Given these factors, it's likely the conflict will continue for months, potentially drawing in more countries.