Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at 2,068 USD, pressured at the Fibonacci level 0.236 at 2,055 USD. Meanwhile, this token is being pulled in two directions — long-term holders are taking profits from higher costs, while whale-level addresses are buying in complex ways to prevent the price from collapsing structurally.
The 2,000 USD line is a dividing line between these two forces, and when one group wins, it will determine the next major direction.
Old ETH holders are selling.
The Glassnode HODL Waves chart tracking the 3 to 5 year holders covers from December 26, 2025, to March 26, 2026, with this group maintaining a proportion of about 14.2% to 14.4% of the total ETH volume from late December to January 20 before beginning to gradually decline.
This decline accelerated sharply towards the end of the chart. Between March 21 and March 26, the 3 to 5 year group decreased from about 13.6% to 12.8% of the total volume — a decrease of nearly 0.8% within less than a week. This is considered the second largest distribution for this group in the 2026 data, following the decline that occurred at the end of January.
Holders in this group accumulated ETH between 2021 and 2023, covering both the peak of the bull market in 2021 near 5,000 USD and the bottom of the bear market in 2022. Many who bought near the peak are still at a loss.
For those who accumulated during the bear market, at the current price, everyone is making significant profits and choosing to sell to realize gains. Exiting the market is not due to panic, but rather selling to take profits purposefully at this price level, which may be difficult to find comparable opportunities soon.
Whales are absorbing while small holders are selling.
The distribution chart of addresses from Santiment tracking 3 groups — addresses holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH (blue), 100,000 to 1,000,000 ETH (red), and 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 ETH (yellow) — clearly shows the changes in ETH ownership since March 25.
The blue group sold approximately 370,000 ETH between March 25 and the present. However, this selling did not significantly impact the price decline.
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Conversely, the red and yellow groups have absorbed this supply together, with both large whale groups increasing their balances in direct proportion to the withdrawals of the blue group. Therefore, compared to the current price of Ethereum, the transfer of 370,000 ETH represents a value of approximately 765 million USD changing hands from mid-tier holders to the largest whales on the network.
With this movement, which means that large addresses are absorbing the supply that smaller addresses are selling off, it is likely to keep ETH above 2,000 USD as long as there is enough buying to absorb the sell-side supply. This will help create a structural support layer to prevent further price declines.
Future ETH price trends
From observation, the daily chart shows that the price of Ethereum is at 2,068 USD, above the Fibonacci level 0.236 at 2,055 USD, while the red 50-day EMA line is tilting down at 2,186 USD and serves as immediate resistance. The Fibonacci retracement grid starts from the zero point at 1,750 USD to the 1.0 level at 3,045 USD.
The 0.236 level at 2,055 USD has been a battleground since the beginning of March. Each time a test occurs, it often closes above that level or rebounds. Currently, the price of Ethereum is testing this point again, with the outcome of the test being a critical determinant of the next target. If the price drops below 2,055 USD, the next support at 1,928 USD will be an important horizontal support before reaching the final base at 1,838 USD.
Confirmation of the uptrend will occur when the price reclaims the 0.382 level at 2,244 USD. If it rises, the next target level is 0.5 at 2,397 USD followed by 0.618 at 2,550 USD.
If the price can continuously move to the level of 2,550 USD, there must be an accelerated accumulation by whales while selling pressure from 3-5 year holders begins to ease. This scenario is more likely to happen if the overall market remains steadily above 2,000 USD.