🧭 I. Current Conclusion (Let’s get to the point)
RIVER has significantly retraced from a high position, currently around 12.8
👉 Market phase has changed from:
Distribution → Downtrend → Entering the brink of panic release
⚠️ This position is not the bottom, but rather:
“Acceleration Zone to Real Bottom”
📉 II. Key Structural Changes (Very Important)
- 17 → 15.5 (First Support) ❌ Already broken$RIVER
- 15.5 → 13 (Second Support) ❌ Already reached
👉 Currently entering:
Liquidity Vacuum Zone (Continuation Zone)
📌 Meaning:
- Above: Large number of trapped positions
- Below: Weak Support
🧠 III. Current Essence: The main force has not yet taken delivery
Current market characteristics:
- Continuous breakdown
- Weak rebound
- No obvious volume increase
- No long lower shadow
👉 Explanation:
❗ Main force has not yet started real accumulation
🔍 Four, the most critical judgment: Rebound or reversal?
At this stage, the probability is greater:
👉 ❌ Reversal (trend reversal)
👉 ✔ Rebound (technical bounce during decline)
📊 Five, the next three core paths
🟡 Path 1 (most common)
12.8 → 14 (rebound) → Drop again → 11 → 10
👉 Technical rebound + Secondary sell-off
🔴 Path 2 (panic selling)
12.8 → 11 → 10 → Spike → Quick pullback
👉 Emotional bottom formation (closer to the real bottom)
🟢 Path 3 (low probability strong move)
12.8 → Consolidation → Volume increase → 16+
Must meet:
- Volume increase
- Continuous bullish candles
- No longer breaking new lows
📍 Six, key support reconstruction
Range | Meaning
12–13 | Current competition area (weak support)
⭐ 10–11 | Next strong support (key focus)
Near 9 | Emotional extremes
7 | Systematic panic bottom
🚨 Seven, currently the most dangerous point
👉 This is the position that is 'easiest to be tricked into bottom fishing'
Reason:
- Already dropped a lot (looks very cheap)
- But panic has not fully released
📌 True bottom characteristics:
- Makes people reluctant to buy
- Rather than 'feeling it’s time to bottom fish'
📊 Eight, true bottom signal (must appear)
Must meet more than 2 conditions to be credible:
- Volume increase (trading volume obviously enlarged)
- Long lower shadow spike (quick sell-off then pullback)
- V-shaped reversal within an hour
- Continuous bullish engulfing
👉 ❗ Without these = Not at the bottom yet
🎯 Nine, practical strategy framework
🟢 Conservative:
→ Wait for 10–11 + Spike signal
🟡 Aggressive:
→ Try small positions at 12–13
→ Add positions near 10
🔴 Error:
→ Current heavy position bottom fishing ❌
🧠 Ten, core logic summary
👉 RIVER belongs to:
Assets driven by 'narrative + capital dominance'
Therefore:
- Indicators ≠ Truth
- Price = Main force behavior
📌 Final statement
👉 12.8 is not the bottom, it’s a relay station in an accelerating drop channel
