The fall of gold seems to be a buying opportunity.
Gold has given back all its gains of 2026 since the beginning of the conflict between the USA and Iran, but Barclays claims that the retracement has created an attractive entry point and that the structural supports of the metal remain firmly established.
"Gold had a very strong rise in 3 years. But it has given back all its gains of 2026 since the war began," driven in part by changes in interest rate expectations and some sales by central banks to defend currencies, said analyst Ajay Rajadhyaksha in a note.
"This creates, we believe, a reasonable entry point," he added.
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Rajadhyaksha believes that gold purchases by central banks, which have sharply increased since 2022, "are hardly going to decrease," pointing to the deterioration of fiscal profiles in Western economies.
With a peak in inflation driven by energy now added to these dynamics, along with the direct fiscal cost of the conflict itself, the analyst sees multiple factors that should support prices.
Geopolitical risks are another central pillar of support. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has triggered an energy shock and raised macroeconomic uncertainty, conditions that Barclays sees as reinforcing gold's role as a hedge.
"The combination of geopolitical risk, persistent central bank buying, the peak inflation from the oil shock, and the fiscal effect of the conflict should all support gold, especially as extreme risk protection in most portfolios."