On March 27, the price fell below $67,000, reported at $66,290, a cumulative drop of 2% this week. But what really makes people feel anxious is not the drop itself, but the increasingly clear script - Monday calls for easing, Wednesday escalates, and Friday brings another turnaround. It's the fifth consecutive week, the same formula, the same taste.
Extending an olive branch while sharpening knives
Trump spoke again. On March 26, he posted on social media that at the "request" of the Iranian government, the "destruction operation" targeting Iranian energy facilities was postponed for 10 days. He also casually mentioned: negotiations are "progressing very smoothly".
Sounds like good news?
The problem is, Iran is simply not recognizing it. The Iranian foreign minister directly denied any direct contact with the US envoy, saying "there are no negotiations." The chairman of the Iranian government's information committee even called Trump's so-called "15-point ceasefire proposal" a "lie." The Revolutionary Guard has indeed taken action—Operation "Real Commitment-4" has already launched its 83rd wave of attacks, targeting Israel's oil storage facilities and US military bases in the Middle East.
More subtly, the Wall Street Journal immediately broke a bombshell: the Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East to "expand military options."
This is interesting.
On one hand, the president is shouting on Twitter that "negotiations are going smoothly," while on the other hand, the Department of Defense is sharpening its knives in preparation for troop increases. What is true and what is false? Who should the market trust?
Some analysts pointed out: this is in itself a carefully designed game. Trump extended the ceasefire deadline, leaving a 10-day window for diplomacy; the Pentagon's troop increase plan reserves options for military escalation. With both soft and hard approaches, this is a typical "negotiate while fighting" tactic. The next critical time node has already been postponed to early April.
330 million in liquidations, who was "hunted"?
In the past 24 hours, the entire network has seen liquidations of $330 million, with long positions liquidating $287 million, accounting for as much as 87%.
What does this indicate?
This indicates that the vast majority of leveraged funds are betting on the direction of "war easing."
The liquidation heat map shows that a large amount of liquidity is concentrated in the range of $68,000 to $68,700.
Who is pricing geopolitical risks?
Ultimately, the Bitcoin crash this week is not a simple technical correction; it is a real-time pricing experiment on geopolitical risks.
When Trump says "delay for 10 days," the market selectively believes it; when the Pentagon says "increase troops by 10,000," the market begins to doubt; when Iran says "no negotiations" and launches missiles, the market finally collapses.
Ironically, no international organization can verify whether the "negotiations" Trump mentioned actually exist. Mainstream media such as Reuters, AP, and BBC are all absent. The Iranian parliament directly denies the existence of a ceasefire agreement, and the Iranian foreign ministry says it has not received any invitation for negotiations.
So when Trump said "progress is smooth," who is he actually talking to?
This question, I'm afraid, only he knows the answer.
