In recent years, the two most common terms in the cryptocurrency space are 'bull market' and 'compliance'. In the past, people often felt that these two terms were separate: a bull market relies on emotions, liquidity, and narratives; compliance means approval, constraints, thresholds, and a slow pace. But now, Hong Kong is trying to reconnect these two terms. With the regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong officially implemented on August 1, 2025, fiat-backed stablecoin issuance has become a licensed regulated business, and the market is beginning to genuinely focus on a larger question: Will Asia be the first to usher in the next round of 'compliance bull market'?


First, the conclusion: I believe that Hong Kong's recent stablecoin licensing may not immediately trigger a traditional bull market, but it is likely to first catalyze a round of **"compliant asset revaluation"**. In other words, the first to rise may not be all cryptocurrencies, but those assets and companies directly related to licensing, clearing, custody, payment, stablecoin infrastructure, and compliant trading services. This time, the core of market speculation is no longer just about “which story is bigger,” but rather “which business can truly operate within the regulatory framework.” This point is fundamentally different from the past trends driven solely by memes, L2, and airdrop expectations. This judgment is based on the legal framework already established in Hong Kong and the Monetary Authority's public statement regarding the limited number of initial licenses and strict review process.


The biggest misunderstanding many people have about the “Hong Kong stablecoin license” is to interpret it as a simple positive signal: Hong Kong can issue stablecoins in the future. However, the reality is far from that simple. What Hong Kong passed is not a symbolic policy, but a complete set of regulatory systems established around fiat-backed stablecoins. According to Hong Kong's legal framework, issuing fiat-referenced stablecoins or stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar requires a license; at the same time, the relevant system has explicit requirements for reserve asset management, redemption arrangements, risk control, and anti-money laundering. In other words, what Hong Kong aims to do is not to “liberate stablecoins,” but to transform them from a wild-growing on-chain tool into a regulated financial infrastructure.


Why is this important? Because stablecoins have long ceased to be marginal tools in the crypto space. They have essentially become the “dollar layer” or “cash layer” in the entire digital asset world. From transaction settlement to cross-border transfers, from DeFi collateral to on-chain market making, payments, and custody, stablecoins play the role of a monetary intermediary. The issue is that the stablecoin systems that have dominated the market in the past largely oscillate between regulatory gray areas in the U.S., offshore structures, on-chain credit, and centralized issuance. What Hong Kong is now trying to do is to provide a clearer path in Asia: stablecoins can develop, but must do so within the confines of licensing, reserves, auditing, anti-money laundering, and redemption rules. Once this path is proven feasible, it will not just be a local policy for Hong Kong, but will become an important reference model for the compliance of digital finance across Asia.


What truly excites the market is not just the effectiveness of the regulatory system, but the imminent issuance of the first licenses. The CEO of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Eddie Yue, has publicly stated that the goal for the first stablecoin issuer licenses is to be issued by March 2026, and initially, only a small number of licenses will be granted. The review focus is not on who shouts the loudest, but on whose application scenarios are more authentic, whose risk control systems are more mature, whose anti-money laundering mechanisms are more complete, and whose reserve asset quality is more reliable. In other words, this is not a “first-come, first-served” situation, but rather “can you prove you qualify to become the future entry point for on-chain fiat.” From a capital market perspective, the scarcity of licenses is itself a form of value. Those most likely to obtain licenses have the potential to gain valuation premiums in the next phase.


So, what the market should really be asking is not “will stablecoins become popular,” but rather “who qualifies to become a legitimate stablecoin issuer and entry point.” From the currently available public information, Hong Kong is no longer just empty talk. As early as the sandbox phase, the Monetary Authority had already disclosed participants, including JD Coin Chain Technology, Yuan Coin Innovation Technology, and a consortium of Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), Animoca Brands, and HKT. Subsequent reports from Reuters have also indicated that Standard Chartered Hong Kong, Animoca, and HKT have engaged in more specific joint ventures around the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin license. This signal is very crucial: it indicates that future competition in stablecoins will not just be between crypto-native projects, but also a hybrid competition involving banks, payment companies, technology firms, and Web3 infrastructure companies.


This means that the so-called first phase of a "compliant bull market" may not initially manifest in cryptocurrency prices but will first be reflected in asset expectations linked to licenses. Simply put, those closest to the license will rise first; those who can handle clearing, custody, payment, compliant trading, and institutional access may be the first to be revalued by the market. In recent years, many have said, “Approval of ETFs will change Bitcoin,” but Hong Kong's stablecoin license resembles a transformation of the entire chain of capital inflow itself. Because ETFs address the entry point for asset allocation, stablecoins solve the monetary infrastructure for on-chain finance. The former allows traditional funds to purchase cryptocurrencies, while the latter enables traditional financial rules to start connecting with the on-chain world. Compared to the former, the latter's industrial spillover effects may be longer and deeper. This inference stems from Hong Kong's definition of stablecoins as regulated financial activities and its prudent regulatory direction concerning cross-border, AML, and reserve quality.


So, will Asia be the first to see the next round of market movements? I believe there is a chance, but it is crucial to distinguish between “market movements” and “a comprehensive bull market.” Hong Kong's advantages lie in three points. First, it has a clearer legal implementation speed than many jurisdictions; the regulations have been passed, the implementation date, and the licensing path are all very clear. Second, it inherently connects Chinese capital, international capital, and Asian financial institutions, holding a unique position between funding and institutional frameworks. Third, it does not just talk about Web3, but attempts to integrate stablecoins, payments, custody, trading services, and traditional financial systems. As long as the initial licenses are issued and verifiable payment, clearing, or cross-border use cases emerge, the market will regard Hong Kong as “Asia's first model market for stablecoin regulation.”


However, it should be noted that a compliant bull market is never without cost. The messages repeatedly released by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority are actually quite clear: the number of initial licenses is limited and will not be excessively liberalized; applicants need to explain their application scenarios, risk control systems, and reserve arrangements; cross-border operations must also face regulatory coordination issues from other jurisdictions. In other words, Hong Kong does not intend to replicate a “stablecoin leap forward,” but rather to conduct small-scale pilot expansions under strict selection. This will directly lead to one outcome: market expectations may be very high, but the actual number of license holders will be very few. Thus, what is most likely to emerge in the short term is not a comprehensive flowering of fundamentals, but rather structural speculation around the scarcity of licenses and the imagined possibilities. This is crucial for content creators and investors alike, as you must differentiate between “the industrial trend being real” and “whether the secondary market's increase has already been preemptively exhausted.”


Looking deeper, the truly significant aspect of Hong Kong's stablecoin license is not just whether it will bring about market movements, but that it may redefine one thing: the core competitiveness of the next round of the crypto market—will it be technological leadership or institutional leadership? In the past, whether a project succeeded often depended on narrative, community, and liquidity; but in the future, in the fields of stablecoins, payments, and institutional finance, the determinants of success will likely be licenses, reserves, audit capabilities, clearing cooperation, and regulatory credibility. Whoever can solidify these factors will have the opportunity to reap long-term benefits. This represents a significant shift in the narrative of the crypto space: moving from “regulatory arbitrage” to gradually transitioning to “scaling in exchange for regulation.” The importance of Hong Kong's attempt lies in its role as the first large-scale validation of this path.


Therefore, if you ask me whether Asia will be the first to see the next round of a “compliant bull market,” my answer is: there is a great chance of seeing a round of “compliant revaluation,” but a comprehensive bull market will depend on whether the real businesses after the issuance of licenses can prove themselves. If the first licenses ultimately turn out to be just news, with no trading volume, no payment scenarios, and no clearing demands, then market enthusiasm will quickly wane; but if Hong Kong can truly establish a closed loop of stablecoins in cross-border settlements, institutional fund transfers, and licensed trading services, then this will not just be a Hong Kong story, but likely the starting point of a new cycle of digital finance across Asia. At that time, what the market speculates on will no longer just be “which coin will rise,” but rather “which type of compliant infrastructure is becoming the financial entry point of the new era.”