The recent drop of SOL from over 93 clearly indicates that the bears are in control, and retail investors are currently licking blood on the edge of a knife.
The current price level is hovering just above the support level of 82.5. To be honest, there is no sense of safety here at all. If 82.5 cannot hold, we will directly look at 80, and it might even drop into the pit of 75, at which point I expect a lot of people will face liquidation. Want to turn things around? You first have to get past 85, then push towards 88-90. That area is filled with trapped positions, and without volume, it won't move at all. The moving averages have all crossed bearishly, so don't expect a V-shaped reversal in the short term.
Looking at that heat map, it feels like the main force is going back and forth between 80 and 90, harvesting retail investors. The area above 88-90 is filled with empty stop-loss orders; the main force can easily blow up the shorts with just a slight pull. Below, 82-80 is the stop-loss zone for the bulls; as soon as it slightly breaks below 82.5, those who set stop-losses will have to run, and they'll have to step down further.
On the macro news front, there are only bad news. The current environment is really unfriendly. The Fed says they want to cut interest rates, but in reality, inflation has risen again, and they might even have to raise rates. In such a high-pressure environment, no altcoins, including SOL, can really rise. Although I know SOL has a good fundamental outlook with fast TPS, many stablecoins, and ETFs bringing in money, everyone is currently risk-averse; who cares about your ecosystem being good? The sentiment is as cold as an ice cellar.
My current thought is that short-term speculative traders want to gamble on a rebound at 82.5; I advise you to be cautious. Stop-losses must be set well; if it breaks 82, run quickly, don't hold on stubbornly. If you really want to play, keep it to a small position, make 2-3 points profit, and then exit, don't be greedy.
For medium-term players, just keep an eye on the 80 mark. If it really gives you the chance to drop to 80 or even 75, I think that's when it’s time to pick up cheap chips; buying slowly then is better than rushing in now.
For long-term holders, don't just look at the current drop; Solana is definitely not a worthless coin, and regulation has also been implemented. If you can hold for more than a year, this position for dollar-cost averaging is actually not a loss, but I'm afraid you might lose your composure halfway.
A strong coin that can potentially multiply tenfold is coming; I'm preparing for a big wave in the upcoming market. If this all-in strategy succeeds, it will definitely make a lot of money. If you want to witness it, my brother, come to 上聊天室.
