U.S. Treasury bonds have surged again, with the 30-year yield hitting 4.986%, a new high since September last year.
This thing is very sensitive, reflecting long-term inflation expectations and fiscal risks. The Middle East hasn't calmed down, oil prices are pressing, and inflation isn't going down. The Federal Reserve just raised the 2026 inflation forecast at the March meeting, and interest rate cut expectations have been pushed back. To put it bluntly, the bond market now thinks that inflation risk is more concerning than the risk of economic slowdown.
To be honest, this is not good news for the crypto space. Rising long-term rates mean high funding costs, which reduces the attractiveness of risk assets. Although Bitcoin has been more resilient than gold recently, it's very difficult to rally independently when the overall environment is tight. In the short term, the support level at 70,200 will be tested repeatedly.
Gongming's view is to keep an eye on two things next: first, whether U.S. Treasury yields can stabilize, and second, how Trump's "deferred maturity" on April 6 will play out. Until these two things are settled, don't have too heavy a position; keep some bullets to wait for a clearer direction before moving.
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