🚨THIS IS REALLY BAD
MOVE Index has just spiked to its highest level since the tariffs crash.
But why does this matter?
MOVE Index is used to measure US Treasury yield volatility.
When this goes up, it indicates increased uncertainty regarding interest rates.
Just like VIX spiking is bad for stocks, MOVE Index spiking is bad for bonds.
And when the bond market feels pressure, the entire economy faces turbulence.
Right now, MOVE Index is spiking due to US-Iran war uncertainty and the energy crisis.
Does that mean everything will dump?
In the short-term, this could happen.
But if the MOVE Index continues to go up, the next possible step will be Trump's relief talks.
Just like in April 2025, when the US government postponed tariffs for 90 days, something similar could happen again.
We are already seeing this as Trump has pushed the deadline by another 10 days.
But if this won't bring the MOVE Index lower soon, a complete ceasefire is a highly likely possibility.
This means the market could experience some pain in the short term, but just like every other black swan event, this shall pass too. $C $STG $KNC