THE PERFECT STORM
The "$400 M Long Squeeze" disarms the rebound of #bitcoin while oil and war cool the market
The cryptocurrency market faces one of its most difficult weeks, marked by a capitulation of the "bulls" and a hostile macroeconomic environment.
In the last 24 hours, $451.27 million in total positions have been liquidated. The alarming part is the asymmetry: $400.63 million corresponds to bullish bets (Longs), compared to only $50.64 million in shorts. This is the fifth time in ten days that optimists are "punished" by a market that refuses to rise.
Correlation with Global Fear: The drop of #BTC below $67,000 and #ETH towards $2,000 is not an isolated event. The rise in oil above $100, driven by military tension in Iran, has reignited fears of persistent inflation. This has dragged down the #NASDAQ 100, which is already trading 10% below its January highs.
The "Shield" of Expiry Has Disappeared: With the expiration of $15 billion in Bitcoin options on Deribit this Friday, the technical incentive to keep the price near $75,000 has vanished. Without this support, Bitcoin is vulnerable to external selling pressure.
Volatility vs. Real Panic: Despite the price bleed, the implied volatility indices (BVIV at 56.32 and EVIV at 78.10) show a decline. This suggests that, although there is pain in the spot market, professional traders have not entered a phase of total panic, even though the demand for "Puts" (put options) over "Calls" (call options) confirms that everyone is buying insurance against a greater drop.
