Many people are asking how TAO views this wave. To put it simply, I've seen this kind of movement too many times.
First, there’s a rapid rise on the daily chart, most people can't even get in on time. By the time you react, the price is already at a high point, and then a spike occurs, wiping out all the stop losses on short positions, making it look like it’s going to break through.
But soon it gets pushed back down, making people feel 'it’s at the top,' and some start to short.
The problem lies here—when the market universally thinks it’s going to drop, it often doesn’t drop immediately.
This kind of rhythm is typical for back-and-forth harvesting, both bulls and bears get eaten. First, a wave is pulled up to create sentiment, then it’s smashed down to create doubt, and then once the short positions pile up, another wave pulls back.
So when you see pressure at high levels and a pullback, it doesn’t mean the market is over; it’s likely just part of the rhythm. Many people get washed out repeatedly here, getting stuck in long positions or getting liquidated on shorts.
The logic behind my earlier trade is actually quite simple: entering around 300 was because there was support and space, with a suitable risk-reward ratio. Later, taking profits in batches around 370 wasn’t because I thought it wouldn’t rise anymore, but because I had already taken the profits I should have.
Trading isn’t about guessing the top or bottom; it’s about seizing certainty.
At this position, there are indeed many shorts. If the chips haven’t been cleared out properly, it’s hard for the market to go down directly. The more consensus there is in one direction, the more cautious you should be.
Don’t let one or two candlesticks dictate the rhythm; understanding the structure is more important than anything else.