👉This week, BTC is dominated by macroeconomic bearish factors, fluctuating downwards from 71k at the beginning of the week, touching a weekly low of 68.4k, currently reported at 68.5-69k, with a weekly decline of about 4%; over $600 million in long positions were liquidated, and trading volume reached a monthly high, with bears dominating the market, showing extreme risk aversion.
Core bearish factors: Inflation + Employment double whammy, rate cut expectations eliminated
This week's core bearish factors come from the resonance of dual data, completely shattering the expectation of a Fed rate cut in 2026:
1. PCE price index exceeded expectations: Data from March 27 shows that the Headline PCE year-on-year is 2.8% and the Core PCE year-on-year is 3.0%, both higher than expected, confirming that inflation pressure has not eased, directly pushing BTC down to 68.4k.
2. Employment and manufacturing are strong: ADP added 165,000 (exceeding expectations of 125,000), durable goods orders increased by 0.4% month-on-month, confirming economic resilience, US Treasury yields remain above 5.1%, BTC fell below 70k, with nearly $300 million in liquidations in a single round.
Secondary bearish factors: robust economy + geopolitical pressure, no hedging support.
The Chicago Fed Index and construction spending exceeded expectations, offsetting recession concerns and suppressing risk assets; geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to oil prices peaking at $92, and BTC did not gain a safe-haven premium, instead intensifying its decline. Additionally, negotiations on 'American Prosperity 2.0' have stalled, with fiscal hedging expectations dropping to zero, leaving BTC lacking bottom support.
Key support and outlook for next week
Short-term 68k is a key support level; if it breaks, it may test the mid to long-term bottom of 65-66k; if it holds, it may experience low-level fluctuations with limited upward space.
Downward pressure remains significant next week: strong economic data and continued geopolitical escalation will prolong the decline; very low probability of dovish comments from the Federal Reserve or trade easing, which could trigger an oversold rebound testing 72k (extremely low probability). Overall market panic leans bearish, and further selling risk should be monitored.
