The next very critical macro node is whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates on April 28🔥🔥🔥
Many people only focus on the Federal Reserve, but the yen actually plays an extremely important role in the global liquidity system. For a long time, Japan's ultra-low interest rates have allowed a large amount of capital to engage in carry trade by borrowing yen, exchanging it for dollars, and investing in high-yield assets. Once Japan raises interest rates, these arbitrage funds will have to cover their positions, and liquidity will be swiftly withdrawn.
In simple terms, Japan's low interest rates serve as the "invisible faucet" for global funds. When the water is flowing, risk assets are active; when the water is turned off, the market tightens immediately.
History has already given signals:
After the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in March 2024, the risk market clearly weakened;
In July 2024, after another rate hike, Bitcoin fell from 62,000 to 49,000;
Subsequent rounds of policy tightening have also caused periodic shocks to the market.
Therefore, this April's decision is not just about Japan itself, but may be a key variable that affects the rhythm of global liquidity. Keeping a close watch in advance is more important than reacting afterward.