Many people think that the market has only been fluctuating recently, but the real recovery is in energy.
$WTI is approaching $96, and Brent crude has directly risen above $102, with daily increases around 4%. This level of rebound is not just retail sentiment; it is macroeconomic risk being repriced. The uncertainties in the Middle East have not truly materialized, but the market has already factored in the 'worst-case scenario'.
Once oil prices return to the triple-digit range, the issue will not just be a story of the energy sector. Transportation costs, manufacturing costs, and food prices will all rise, and inflation expectations can easily be reignited. The central bank was originally discussing when to ease a bit, but now they have to reconsider. If interest rates do not dare to be lowered lightly, liquidity expectations will be suppressed.
What does this mean for risk assets? To put it simply: the sharper the rise in oil prices, the more divided the market sentiment becomes. On one hand, inflation concerns are rising; on the other hand, geopolitical risk premiums are spreading, and funds will first go to defense rather than offense. High volatility will become the norm.
For cryptocurrencies, this environment typically means 'following the decline' first, as risk appetite decreases. However, if the energy shock continues and stagflation pressures increase, funds will eventually reconsider asset allocation structures. The issue is not how much it has risen today, but whether this rebound will evolve into a long-term high oil price.
Markets are often not crushed by sudden events, but rather slowly overwhelmed by costs. Now that oil prices have surged back to high levels, what is more concerning is not the candlestick patterns, but the tightening string of the global economy.