When Will This Iran War End

The war started on February 28th.

It has now been nearly one month.

No one knows exactly when it ends.

But here are the three possible scenarios.

Scenario one. Iran blinks.

The U.S. gives a final ultimatum. Iran accepts terms. Strait opens. Oil drops. War ends. Markets rally.

Scenario two.

The U.S. blinks. Trump wants out.

He needs a win before elections.

Iran demands compensation. U.S. pays something quietly. War ends.

Everyone saves face.

Scenario three. Neither blinks.

The war drags. Strait stays shut. Oil stays above $100. Inflation stays hot.

Markets stay volatile. Conflict becomes frozen. Like Korea. Like Ukraine.

Right now Iran holds the key.

They control the strait. They decide who passes and who doesn't. China and India still get oil. The U.S. doesn't.

Trump gave a 24 hour deadline.

That passed. Nothing changed. Iran didn't surrender. U.S.

didn't escalate. Both sides are bluffing. Or both sides are stuck.

The next real window is April. If no deal by then, the conflict becomes entrenched. Summer demand for oil spikes. Prices go higher. Pressure builds on everyone.

The war ends when one side decides the cost of continuing is higher than the cost of stopping.

Neither side is there yet.

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