Cardano's price is trading in the red zone on Friday, nearly erasing its recovery from the start of this week.
Derivatives data and technical outlook indicate a bearish forecast, with open interest declining and momentum weakening.
Despite the correction, Santiment data shows a certain accumulation from whales, indicating that some investors are buying on the dip.
The price of Cardano ($ADA ) is struggling as it trades below $0.26 at the time of writing on Friday, nearly erasing its recovery from the beginning of this week. Derivative and technical indicators support this bearish bias, while some whales are buying aggressively, which may mitigate further declines.
Derivative metrics predict a bearish bias for Cardano
Open interest (OI) for Cardano futures dropped to $402.94 million on Friday, having been in a continuous decline since mid-March. This decrease in open interest reflects a decline in investor participation and suggests a bearish outlook.
Cardano Open Interest Chart. Source: Coinglass
Additionally, the long-to-short ratio for ADA on CoinGlass, currently at 0.83 on Friday, is nearing its lowest level in over a month. This ratio, which is below one, reflects bearish sentiment in the markets, as more traders bet on a decline in the asset's price.
ADA Long-to-Short Ratio Chart. Source: Coinglass
Funding rate data from CoinGlass also supports negative sentiment. The rates turned negative on Friday, registering -0.0015%, indicating that short positions are paying long positions and reflecting bearish sentiment toward ADA.
Cardano Funding Rates Chart. Source: Coinglass
Some whales are buying the Cardano dip
Despite the bearish outlook, on-chain data from the Santiment chart below shows that some whales have started to accumulate ADA.
The supply distribution scale indicates that whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA tokens (red line) and between 10 million and 100 million ADA tokens (blue line) have accumulated a total of 270 million tokens from Wednesday to Friday. During the same period, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA tokens (yellow line) sold off 20 million tokens.
This indicates that the second group of whales may have fallen victim to a capitulation event. In contrast, the first group of wallets took the opportunity and accumulated Cardano at a discounted price. Furthermore, if this buying continues actively, it may provide some protection against further declines.
Cardano Supply Distribution Scale Chart. Source: Santiment
Cardano Price Forecast: Sellers in Control
The price of $ADA is trading below $0.27 as of Friday, having dropped by about 6% the previous day. The near-term bias is somewhat neutral with a bearish lean, as the price remains below the 50 and 100-day exponential moving averages, keeping the broader downward trend intact despite recent stability.
Daily closes remain compressed between $0.25 and the mid-$0.26 area, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart near 43 stays below the midline of 50, indicating limited bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also slightly dipped below the signal line around the zero area, reinforcing the absence of sustainable upward pressure and suggesting continued consolidation within a broader corrective phase.
Immediate support is seen at the horizontal level of $0.24, which protects recent lows; breaking this level could open the next bearish target toward the $0.23–$0.22 area, closer to the Fibonacci origin of the broader upward movement.
On the upside, the first resistance aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the previous drop from $0.42 to $0.22 at $0.27, with stronger resistance at the 38.2% retracement and an overlapping horizontal barrier near $0.30. A daily close above this upper range will be essential to neutralize the bearish bias and open the door for a recovery toward the $0.32 area, where the 50% retracement represents a more significant structural barrier.
