📊 WIN RATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS – updated through 2025-10-04

Community scalping data shows the FGI–win rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.07). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; Extreme Greed continues to be the riskiest zone for performance.

🔍 Quick take

In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags win rate sharply lower. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat as indicative only.

📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with day counts)

😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5

😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.86% — n=95

😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.17% — n=136

😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=198

🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)

Share of days above the overall average win rate of 44.76% by band:

Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 51.58% • Neutral 50.74% • Greed 47.47% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.

This reinforces that Extreme Greed is where discipline must be tightest, while Fear/Neutral deliver steadier, around-average results.

📈 Implications for scalping

➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SLs, favor early profit-taking when momentum fades.

➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TPs due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a full strategy shift).

➤ FGI <20: small sample; act cautiously and keep order management front and center.

#WinRateAnalysis #FGI