This afternoon at 4 PM, $15 billion worth of crypto options will expire, which is not a small scale.
Let's talk about Bitcoin first, the biggest pain point is stuck at $75,000, with a position size of $13.2 billion. Theoretically, this is the price point where both bulls and bears are most entangled—but the reality is that the bears have the upper hand, and BTC is currently firmly stuck in the range of $68,000 to $72,000, unable to break out. Ethereum is even worse, with a maximum pain point of $2,250 and a position size of $2.1 billion, also being pressured by the bears.
This situation is too reminiscent of the big market movement last November—at that time, there was also such a large-scale options expiry, and BTC was forcibly pulled up before the close, only to be smashed down as soon as the European market opened. Now, with pain points set so high, market makers don't even have the willingness to pretend to pull up prices, clearly indicating that market sentiment has deteriorated to the core, and no one is willing to take the bait, all are just holding on and waiting for the other side to collapse first.
Market sentiment has become negatively entrenched. Do the bulls want to counterattack? No way! Do the bears want to net gains? They also need to see if anyone is willing to catch the falling knife. It's now a matter of who can endure longer, but to be honest, the longer this stalemate drags on, the stronger the force of the subsequent drop will be.
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