US INFLATION IS AT RISK OF EXCEEDING 4% - POLICY PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH
🔹 OECD forecasts that US inflation in 2026 could reach 4.2%, significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's estimate of 2.7%. This is not just a forecast discrepancy but reflects the risk of inflation being underestimated.
🔹 Three main drivers are pushing prices up:
Energy prices: Middle East tensions keep oil prices high, affecting transportation and production costs.
Tariffs & trade: Protectionist trends are increasing import prices, reversing the benefits of globalization.
Supply chains: Although recovering, the costs of “risk mitigation” remain high, making it difficult for prices to drop significantly.
🔹 The impact does not stop at CPI:
Businesses maintain high selling prices → purchasing power weakens.
Wage increase pressure → formation of a secondary inflation spiral.
Profit margins shrink if costs are not fully passed on.
🔹 Economic growth is expected to be around ~2% in 2026, approaching a state of “mild stagflation” (low growth, high inflation).
🔹 Medium-term signals indicate cooling:
Core inflation: 2.8% → 2.4% (2027)
Overall inflation: around 1.6% (2027)
🔹 However, the short term remains a tough challenge:
The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates high for a longer period.
The possibility of early rate cuts is diminishing if CPI >3%.
Pricing pressure continues to weigh on growth stocks and crypto.
Conclusion: If the OECD scenario is correct, the market is “pricing” in too optimistically regarding an early Fed pivot. This could lead to a correction in expectations and widespread revaluation.