Brother Hao's BTC Market Analysis: Key Crossroads, Short-Term Pressure but Long-Term Logic Remains Unchanged
Brothers, the latest data shows that Bitcoin is currently at a key crossroads, having just briefly fallen below 70000, with particularly intense market competition between bulls and bears.
First, the core conclusion: short-term BTC is under pressure with a bearish fluctuation, there is strong support below, and the long-term upward logic has not changed at all. In the short term, it is pressured by macro factors and the massive expiration of options, with resistance above at 70000-72000 and support below at 67500-69000; in the medium to long term, institutional allocation demand is still present, BTC remains a good tool for hedging against currency devaluation, with a high correlation of 0.87 to the global M2 money supply, and there is support at the bottom, but currently, there is a lack of incremental funds to drive the market.
Right now, this wave of weakness is due to multiple pressures: global high interest rates, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the situation in the Middle East causing capital to flee risk assets; whales and mining companies are selling off, MARA directly sold 15,000 BTC, creating significant selling pressure; there is also the expiration of options worth 14 billion USD, with the biggest pain point at 75000, market makers hedging suppressing prices; technically, breaking below the key support of 69500 has frustrated the bulls.
Key levels to watch: 67500 is the short-term lifeline; if it breaks below, there is a high probability of going to 65000 or even 60000; to convert from short to long, it must stabilize above 70000 and break through 72000 with volume to see 82000.
Today's trading guide: bullish, gradually buying near 68600-67800, first looking at 69500, if it breaks through, then looking at 70600, strictly follow the levels, and don't blindly chase orders. #BTC $BTC
