⚠️ TODAY $14 BILLION OPTIONS EXPIRING - WHERE WILL THE MARKET GO?
This is the biggest event for crypto in Q1/2026.
Right now on 27/3, $14 billion Bitcoin options are expiring on Deribit. This number accounts for nearly 40% of the total open interest in the market. This is not an ordinary figure.
The most interesting thing is that the MAX PAIN level for this expiration is $75,000.
What is Max Pain? This is the price range at which options buyers suffer the most losses. Market makers usually tend to push prices towards this area before expiration to minimize the payout.
BTC is currently at $69,400. Max Pain is at $75,000. The gap is nearly 8%.
There are 2 scenarios being monitored by traders:
🟢 Positive scenario: After expiration, price pressure is released. Market makers stop pinning the price. BTC strongly rebounds towards $73,000 - $75,000.
🔴 Negative scenario: Expiration causes additional volatility. Negative funding rates combined with fear sentiment push BTC to test $68,000 - $67,000.
History shows that on expiration day, things are usually quite calm. Real volatility occurs in the 24-48 hours after that.
Tomorrow, 28/3, is the real decision day with PCE data and Iran negotiation deadline.